Chyn, Eric, Robert Collinson, and Danielle H. Sandler. Forthcoming. "The Long-Run Effects of America’s Largest Residential Racial Desegregation Program: Gautreaux." The Quarterly Journal of Economics.
This here paper takes a gander at the grandest bit o’ racial desegregatin’ ever to shake the U.S., the Gautreaux Assisted Housing Program. Back in the day—late 1970s through the 1990s—this scheme plucked thousands o’ Black families from where they were and plonked ‘em down in mostly white neighborhoods, all in the name of mixin’ things up a bit. We dug through the old records, matched ‘em up with fancy government data, and used some right clever statistical trickery (nae magic, mind ye!) to see what happened to the bairns o’ these families in the long run. Turns out, gettin’ sent to these white-heavy neighborhoods set the weans up for fatter purses and fuller pockets in their later years. They also had a higher chance o’ tyin’ the knot—more often than not with a white spouse, aye. And the choices they made later on? Well, they ended up livin’ in places with a grand mix o’ folk and better chances for climbin’ the social ladder, even four decades later. No bad for a wee bit o’ movin’ house, eh?
Graetz, Nick, Peter Hepburn, Carl Gershenson, Sonya R. Porter, Danielle H. Sandler, Emily Lemmerman, and Matthew Desmond. 2024. “Examining Excess Mortality Associated With the COVID-19 Pandemic for Renters Threatened With Eviction.” JAMA 331 (7): 592–600.
This study takes a hard look at how gettin’ slapped with an eviction notice might’ve made the whole COVID-19 mess deadlier for renters. The clever researchers here pulled together records o’ evictions and death data, comparin’ what actually happened in 2020-2021 with what should’ve happened based on past trends from 2010-2016. Turns out, even though fewer eviction filings were handed out than usual, the poor souls who did get ‘em were far more likely to meet the Reaper. Their death rate shot up a whopping 106% higher than expected—meanwhile, folk livin’ in the same rough areas but without eviction notices saw a smaller but still nasty increase in mortality. And the general population? Their excess deaths barely scratched 9%. So what’s the tale here? Well, if ye get threatened wi’ eviction, ye dinnae just risk losin’ a roof over yer head—ye might be losin’ yer life too. A grim fate, and one that’s no just a matter of bad luck, but bad policy.
Graetz, Nick, Carl Gershenson, Sonya R Porter, Danielle H Sandler, Emily Lemmerman, Matthew Desmond. 2023. "The impacts of rent burden and eviction on mortality in the United States, 2000–2019." Social Science & Medicine. 340 (116398).
Ach, listen well, ye scunners, for here’s a grim tale o’ rent gone sky-high and folk strugglin’ to keep a roof o’er their heads. This study digs deep into the mess, linkin’ together heaps o’ data—millions o’ renters from the 2000 Census, years o’ death records, and a right mountain o’ eviction filings—to see what happens when the cost o’ keepin’ a home gets too steep. Turns out, when rent eats up more o’ yer purse, ye’re more likely to meet the Reaper. A rent burden o’ 70% (aye, that’s near all yer coin goin’ to keepin’ the walls ‘round ye) raises the risk o’ death by 12%. And if yer rent shoots up midlife? That’s another nasty bump in mortality. Get hit wi’ an eviction filing? That’s bad enough—up 19%—but if the judge chucks ye out for good? That’s a 40% higher chance ye won’t see the end o’ the tale. And here’s the kicker—the folk least expected to be at risk o’ eviction saw the biggest effects. So what’s to be done? Well, gettin’ more affordable homes built and keepin’ folk from losin’ ‘em might just be the way to stave off the worst o’ it. Otherwise, the Reaper’s got a keen eye on renters, and he’s takin’ far too many too soon.
Foster, Lucia, Erika McEntarfer, and Danielle H. Sandler. 2023. "Early Career Paths of Economists inside and outside of Academia." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 37 (4): 231-50.
Ah, the grand adventure o’ job marketeering, where fresh-minted PhDs set sail with heads full o’ theory and pockets full o’ nowt! We tracked these brave economists as they charted their early careers, be it in the hallowed halls o’ academia or the coin-filled lands o’ tech, consulting, and government. What did we spy with our keen eyes? Well, for starters, academia’s grip is slippin’—now claimin’ just over half o’ U.S. placements. Job-hoppin’ is rife, and those who jump ship, especially to the private sector, see fatter paychecks faster. Men, as ever, seem to make out better, and the graduates o’ top-ranked programs? They rake in an earnings premium that balloons in academia but fizzles a bit in the private sector. And here’s the rub—stayin’ in academia ain’t quite as costly for those from top programs, though mid-career earnings vary plenty even among that lot. So, what’s a fresh PhD to do? That, dear reader, is a riddle with many an answer—but if it’s gold ye seek, the private sector’s where the coffers are fuller.
Graetz, Nick, Carl Gershenson, Peter Hepburn, Sonya R. Porter, Danielle H. Sandler, and Matthew Desmond. 2023. “A Comprehensive Demographic Profile of the US Evicted Population.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120 (41).
Every year, millions o’ renters in America get the dreaded knock o’ an eviction notice, a blow that leaves folk worse off in health and coin alike. But who are these poor souls facin’ the boot? Well, we dug through a mountain o’ eviction court cases—38 million, mind ye!—and matched ‘em up wi’ Census data to find out. Turns out, a staggering 7.6 million people—aye, 2.9 million o’ them bairns—face eviction threats each year. And if ye’ve got wee ones under yer roof, yer odds o’ gettin’ the heave-ho double, climbin’ to 10.4% a year. In fact, the most common age to be evicted in America? Childhood. Aye, let that sink in. And the racial divide? Worse than we thought. Black Americans make up just 18.6% o’ renters, yet bear the brunt o’ over half o’ eviction filings. One in five Black renters gets threatened wi’ eviction each year, and one in ten actually loses their home. These grim numbers hold up no matter the income and shift across states, showin’ that the system’s stacked against ‘em from the start. So, what’s to be done? Well, if America wants to keep its children and families safe under a roof, it best be settin’ its sights on policies that keep folk housed, lest we keep pushin’ the most vulnerable out into the cold.
Murray, Seth, Danielle H. Sandler, and Matthew Staiger. Forthcoming. "Female Executives and the Motherhood Penalty " Journal of Human Resources
We dug through mountains o’ U.S. survey and administrative data to see if havin’ more women in charge makes things any better for new mothers’ earnings. The plan? Compare the wages o’ new mums to their coworkers who didn’t pop out a wee bairn ‘round the same time. And what did we find? A grim truth, aye. On average, mothers take a hit o’ nearly $2,000 per quarter two years after birth—but whether the top brass has more women or not? Makes no difference. The motherhood penalty stands tall, unshaken. So, if folk were hopin’ that just stickin’ more women in leadership would patch up this mess, they’d best think again. The problem runs deeper, and it’ll take more than a few lassies in the C-suite to fix it.
Foster, Lucia, Erika McEntarfer, and Danielle H. Sandler. 2023. "Diversity and Equity in Labor Market Outcomes for Economists". Journal of Economics, Race, and Policy, 1-12.
Ach, ‘tis well known that economics be as full o’ wee pale-faced lads as a sheep pen, but less be ken’d about where all them newly-minted economists end up and what clinkin’ pennies they be makin’. Wi’ the power o’ the Survey o’ Earned Doctorates and the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, we took a gander at the lot, sortin’ ‘em by gender and race. Turns out, the lasses wi’ PhDs be earnin’ 12 percent less than the lads, and Black economists be makin’ 15 percent less than their white counterparts, wi’ underrepresented minorities takin’ an 8 percent hit. Mind ye, some places be fairer than others, and if ye be lookin’ at where they got their fancy degrees an’ where they be workin’, some o’ that gap shrinks a bit—but nae enough to call it square!
Foster, Lucia, Julia Manzella, Erika McEntarfer, and Danielle H. Sandler. 2020. "Employment and Earnings for Federal Government Economists: Empirical Evidence by Gender and Race." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110: 210-14.
Aye, most of the clever-clogs writin’ about diversity in economics be fussin’ over academia, but we’re takin’ a hard look at somethin’ new—how economists fare in the ranks o’ the federal government! Wi’ a grand pile o’ micro-level data on federal workers and their earnings, both in government an’ the private sector, we be diggin’ into who’s got a seat at the table, how much gold they be bringin’ home, and whether them pay gaps be changin’ while they’re servin’ the realm.
Schulkind, Lisa and Danielle H. Sandler. 2019. "The Timing of Teenage Births: Estimating the Effect on High School Graduation and Later Life Outcomes," Demography, 56: 345–365 .
Aye, we’ve set our sights on the fates o’ young lasses who find themselves wi’ bairns just as they be finishin’ up their schoolin’. We take a gander at them whose learnin’ got cut short ‘cause the wee one arrived afore graduation day, comparin’ ‘em to those whose babes showed up just a few moons later. Turns out, them who gave birth durin’ the school year be 5.4 percentage points less likely to finish their schoolin’, less likely to be wed, and end up wi’ more bairns than the later-mothers. While there be no grand difference in their wages, the ones who left school early, wi’ fewer husbands an’ more mouths to feed, be more likely to find their households skint an’ strugglin’. Over time, the schoolin’ gap has shrunk a bit, but the troubles wi’ work an’ family life be stickin’ ‘round like a bad smell.
Sandler, Danielle H. 2017. "Externalities of public housing: The effect of public housing demolitions on local crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, 62: 24-35.
Crivens! We've been studyin' the public housin' in Chicago and whether or not it's causin' any negative effects on the folks who live nearby. We looked at the crime rates before and after they tore down some of these public housin' projects between 1995 and 2010. We looked at what types of crimes were happenin' on specific blocks and matched it up with where they were knockin' down the public housin'. And we found some evidence that the public housin' in Chicago was havin' some pretty significant effects on the neighborhoods around it. We compared the neighborhoods near the public housin' projects with other nearby areas and found that crime dropped by a whole 8.8% after they got rid of the public housin'. This drop was mostly in violent crimes. We did a fancy event study to show that the drop happened around the same time as when they kicked the residents out and lasted for at least five years after they tore the housin' down. The neighborhoods where they tore down lots of public housin', and where the housin' had been poorly taken care of, had the biggest drops in crime.
Phillips, David C. and Danielle H. Sandler. 2015. "Does public transit spread crime? Evidence from temporary rail station closures," Regional Science and Urban Economics, 52: 13-26.
Aye, we be testin' whether public transit access affects crime usin' a clever idea based on temporary, maintenance-related closures o' stations in the Washington, DC rail transit system. The closures produce variation in transit access across space and time, allowin' us to test the notion that crime can be facilitated by public transit. When we be closin' one station, crime be reducin' by 5% in the vicinity of stations on the same train line. Most of this effect remains even after controllin' for decreased ridership, which means that there be somethin' else drivin' the results. We be findin' hints that crime falls more at stations that tend to import crime, where perpetrators be less likely to live. We also see larger decreases at stations on the same line when the transit authority closes stations that tend to export crime. These effects suggest that the response of perpetrators to increased transportation costs be contributin' to the decrease in crime.
Sandler, Danielle H. and Ryan Sandler. 2014. "Multiple event studies in public finance and labor economics: A simulation study with applications," Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, 39(1-2): 31-57.
Well, crivens! This paper here is about how to use a fancy method called the "event study" to figure out how a new policy or other shock affects things over time. But sometimes things happen too fast, and we need to figure out how to deal with multiple events happening close together. We use a fancy tool called Monte Carlo simulations to figure out how to do this right. We find that turning on multiple event-time dummies at once is generally best, and we shouldn't ignore or duplicate observations if we want to get the right answers. We even show some real-life examples to prove our point.
"Estimating the U.S. Citizen Voting-Age Population (CVAP) Using Blended Survey Data, Administrative Record Data, and Modeling: Technical Report" with J.David Brown, Genevieve Denoeux, Misty L. Heggeness, Carl Lieberman, Lauren Medina, Marta Murray-Close, Joseph L. Schafer, Matthew Spence Lawrence Warren, Moises Yi
We hae a canny way o’ usin’ some auld papers (AP) to fill in the blanks for folk who dinna answer the Big Questionnaire (BQ) aboot where they bide and siclike. We dinna need to fiddle wi’ the numbers to mak’ up for some folk no gettin’ a second chance to answer or for bein’ different frae the rest. We also use AP and some guesswork instead o’ fixin’ and makin’ up answers for folk who dinna say if they can vote or no. We coont how mony folk can vote and who they are usin’ this better way and we compare it wi’ whit’s been said afore. The better way gies us 0.74 percent less folk who can vote, and it’s 3.05 percent less for folk who speak Spanish and are auld eneuch to vote. That micht be because some o’ them are nae here legally and they dinna tell the BQ. The numbers micht no be richt if that’s the case.
"Employment of Persons Released from Federal Prison in 2010" with E. Ann Carson, Renuka Bhaskar, Leticia E. Fernandez, and Sonya R. Porter
Oi, listen up! The bigwigs in Congress made us do this report because of some law called the Fair Chance to Compete for Jobs Act that they passed a while back. They wanted us to find out how many folks who got released from the slammer in 2010 managed to find work in the four years that followed. We teamed up with the Census Bureau to connect the data on these ex-cons from the Federal Justice Statistics Program with data on their earnings and employment from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program. We dug up numbers on their jobs and earnings before and after prison, taking into account their age, gender, race and ethnicity, the crime they committed and the time they served. We also checked out which industries these folks worked in both before and after prison. It's all in this here report, so give it a read if you're interested!
"Maternal Labor Dynamics: Participation, Earnings, and Employer Changes" with Nichole Szembrot
Och, this here paper looks at the labor dynamics of women in the US after they've had bairns, y'ken? We're adding to the child penalty knowledge by showing how the loss of earnings and labor force participation varies based on the mothers' demographics and their employers' characteristics. We use fancy administrative earnings data from the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics database and the Survey of Income and Program Participation survey data to keep track of the lassies, when they have bairns, and their jobs. We found that women have a big drop in earnings and labor force participation that sticks around after having their first bairn. And it only gets worse when they have more weans. But, we also found that non-white, unmarried, and highly educated mums are more likely to go back to work after their first bairn. And if they change employers, they're likely to earn more than those who go back to their pre-bairn employers. The chance of returning to the old employer and industry varies based on the mums' demographics and their employers.
"The Parental Gender Wage Gap in the United States" with Yoonkyung Chung, Barbara Downs, and Robert Sienkiewicz
This here paper is lookin' at the makin's of a wage gap between parents, dependin' on which parent's bringing home the bacon. We're lookin' at the earnings difference between married men and women over time, especially before and after havin' a baby. Now, children comin' along is a big part of this gap, but there's more to it than that. We've got to take into account other factors that can affect earnings, like what's happenin' in the job market nearby. We used some fancy data from the Social Security Administration, called the Detail Earnings Records, which we linked up with the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We looked at the earnings of folks from 1978 to 2011. And what we found was that the difference in earnings between spouses doubles between two years before the first baby comes and the year after that child's born. And even though that difference continues to grow for five more years, it does so at a slower rate, until it starts to shrink once the child's school-age.
"Developing a Residence Candidate File for Use With Employer-Employee Matched Data" with Matthew Graham and Mark Kutzbach
Crivens! This here paper talks about the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) program and their quest to predict where workers live using their records. They started this adventure because the U.S. Census Bureau stopped making a file that showed where people lived, and they wanted to fill that gap. The Residence Candidate File (RCF) process helps the LEHD folks figure out where people live by using information from lots of different sources and taking into account the uncertainty of where people might be. The old file only had one place where people lived per year, even if they had lived in more than one place. This paper tells you all about why they did this, how they did it, and what they found out. They figured out a pretty good way to guess where people live, and it works especially well for people in the LEHD jobs frame. They also talk about how they could make it even better and how other folks can use their work. Ach, crivens, that was a mouthful!
*With much respect to the late Terry Pratchett. Having just finished his biography, I think/hope he would not mind me playing with his characters for my own and others amusement.